weak
Junior Member
Posts: 63
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PHM
Jan 28, 2004 16:14:59 GMT -5
Post by weak on Jan 28, 2004 16:14:59 GMT -5
Topping pattern is a triangle...Waiting for confirmation...Target is around 35...I am playing this one with puts...Any early rally in the homebuilders will probably be sold into... weak stockcharts.com/gallery?phm |
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weak
Junior Member
Posts: 63
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PHM
Jan 29, 2004 9:59:36 GMT -5
Post by weak on Jan 29, 2004 9:59:36 GMT -5
Purchased a bunch more puts on phm this morning along with tol....
weak
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PHM
Jan 29, 2004 16:13:40 GMT -5
Post by DJF on Jan 29, 2004 16:13:40 GMT -5
An aggressive play. Intraday showed some good support below $43.00. Early January has a dominating doji that adds to this support. What to look for - a continuation rally to $46 (close to where stops should be) and then another downward attempt at $43. However, if prices were to close lower tomorrow (1-2%) then your puts would be looking good value for a run to $35. The bulls were in control today, but without a positive followthrough (a strong Friday morning) they will get jittery and likely jump ship before waiting on a test of $40.
DD as always,
DJF
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weak
Junior Member
Posts: 63
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PHM
Jan 29, 2004 17:08:47 GMT -5
Post by weak on Jan 29, 2004 17:08:47 GMT -5
I agree ...Not a whole lot of follow through today...Could retest the 50 day...Tomorrow morning will be vital...Regardless, I still believe housing is headed lower...
weak
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weak
Junior Member
Posts: 63
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PHM
Feb 5, 2004 9:09:51 GMT -5
Post by weak on Feb 5, 2004 9:09:51 GMT -5
I took a small loss in this position....Although the builders appear ready to break through support, I just don't like the intraday pattern...A wave 4 triangle played out yesterday, followed by a 5w decline....Daily and weekly Stoch. are both headed down...If there is a break with volume, I will jump on board.
Tread cautiously...The market is churning....
weak
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PHM
Feb 5, 2004 16:53:25 GMT -5
Post by DJF on Feb 5, 2004 16:53:25 GMT -5
PHM at current prices is a good straddle play - 3 month puts with 6 month calls. Plenty of room both sides. Target $36 and $50, likely the former - so you are probably right with your puts.
DD as always
DJF
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